2024 NHL playoff preview: Rangers vs. Panthers

By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczsyszyn and Sean Gentille

The Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers finished first in the Metropolitan Divisions, while the Florida Panthers won the Atlantic.

That makes this upcoming series, which opens Wednesday in New York, a true test of the best in the Eastern Conference.

New York has already made it further than it did last year. But now comes the challenge of besting their 2022 season, in which they reached the Eastern Conference final after ousting the Hurricanes in Round 2.

The Panthers know what’s waiting for them if they can muster four more wins: a chance at redemption after last year’s Stanley Cup Final loss.

So who will become the final Eastern Conference team standing?

The odds

A 114-point Rangers team triumphed against an opponent — the Carolina Hurricanes — that always fumbles in the middle of the playoffs, proving they should’ve been more respected by math in the first place. Sorry!

What did we learn from that experience? Apparently nothing, giving the Rangers a 35 percent chance against the Panthers.

That has less to do with any hatred toward the Rangers and more to do with their opponents. They would’ve been favored against anyone else in the East — just not Carolina or Florida, two teams the model simply holds in higher esteem.

We saw how that played out in Round 2, but 35 percent is no guarantee — or an indication of a particularly lopsided series, for that matter. The margins on a game-to-game basis are much slimmer than the series odds may appear: nearly 50-50 odds for the Rangers on home ice, and a bit below 40-60 on the road. In terms of expected goal margin, we’re talking 2.9-3.0 at home and 2.7-3.4 on the road.

Those margins are enough to give Florida a significant chance at prevailing in a seven-game series — but it’s hard not to believe destiny could be on New York’s side.

The numbers

Just two goals separate the Rangers and Panthers defensively.

Defense has been a strength for Florida all season, thanks to their steady blue line and some strong two-way skaters up front at even strength and on the penalty kill. Tampa Bay challenged that in Round 1. The Panthers allowed more shots and scoring chances than usual to open the postseason, and were a bit leakier on the kill.

Florida tightened up against the Bruins, conceding almost 13 attempts and 0.21 expected goals fewer per 60 between rounds at five-on-five. Boston only mustered one goal in almost 26 minutes of power-play time against the Panthers’ penalty kill through six games.

The Rangers came into the playoffs as a pretty solid defensive team and carried that into Round 1. They weren’t tested as much against the Washington Capitals, but the Hurricanes were a different animal. For all the shot volume Carolina created, New York did its best to limit higher-danger shots, especially through the first half of the series. That extended to the penalty kill. The Rangers now have broken even in short-handed goals, with four for and four against.

Offense is where Florida has the real edge. The Panthers create more shots and quality chances than New York. In the regular season, the Rangers had better finishing to show for it at five-on-five. Both teams lean on a lot of high-danger passing and puck movement, and Florida is a better team at defending off the rush, which will present a challenge for the Rangers. New York, however, has a knack for making more out of less.

Through two rounds of the playoffs, the Panthers are converting on their chances and scoring more than expected. That just hasn’t trickled to the power play, where the Rangers thrive.

The big question

Can the Rangers keep up their knack for winning close games?

Just win, baby. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters.

No team has embodied that more than the Rangers. In 92 regular-season and playoff games, they have 63 wins and a .684 win percentage that’s unmatched. So why aren’t their chances of advancing higher?

The answer is simple: goal differential. New York’s plus-53 ranks seventh. That’s a lot closer to where oddsmakers had the team’s Cup chances to start the postseason (sixth) as well as our own odds (fifth).

Some may scoff at that notion, but if they’re looking for answers as to why the Presidents’ Trophy winners are again entering a series as underdogs, that’s basically it. It may feel like unfair treatment for the team with the best record, but the unusual part is a team earning the best record with the seventh-best goal differential.

Not only has that never happened before (in a league with at least 20 teams), but the last time a Presidents’ Trophy winner was even outside the top three was in 1979.

When it comes to figuring out team strength, margin of victory plays a big role. Modeling player value to figure that out goes down the same path. It all comes down to how a player affects goals for and goals against — not wins.

That’s a key distinction, and it’s why there’s a disconnect when a team’s record doesn’t quite align with its ability to outscore opponents. The two are very highly correlated, but not perfectly so.

The reason the Rangers won more games than their goal differential dictated is the same reason they aren’t more highly regarded here: their record in one-goal games. Generally speaking, that’s not something that can be counted on with consistency. Margin of victory speaks volumes about a team’s ability.

Don’t get us wrong, the Rangers still had a very strong record in games not decided by one goal. They’re an elite team. But a 23-4-4 record in one-goal games did a lot of heavy lifting toward their finish as the league’s top team.

All of that speaks to why the math is not on New York’s side in this series … just as it wasn’t in Round 2 against Carolina. What happened there? Three straight one-goal wins to open up the series, naturally.

Some might call that good fortune with potential to regress at the cruelest time.

But after a full season of winning that exact way, there’s plenty of room to believe the Rangers have the It Factor necessary to keep it up. Maybe they do just have an innate ability to win those close, tight games of attrition — the ones that Stanley Cup championships are built off of.

It might even be the magic of Peter Laviolette, whose 2005-06 Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup with their own consistent ability to be one goal better. They went 28-5-8 in one-goal games during the regular season to lead the league, before winning 10 of their 16 playoff games by a single goal.

That’s really all it takes: one more goal than the other guys.

Our estimation might have the Panthers as the stronger team, but the Rangers’ ability to get that extra goal more than any other team can’t be ignored. When the expected margin in each game is under one goal, New York’s knack for getting it could very well be the difference.

The X-factor

Can Florida match New York’s special-teams mastery?

For the Rangers, a big part of that knack comes from their power-play performance. In the regular season, they were third in percentage (26.4), fourth in goals (0.79 per game) and sixth in expected goals/60 (10.17). That mix of process and results has carried over into the playoffs, where they’re second only to Edmonton in goals per game (1.1) and percentage (31.4). They’ve won all six games in which they’ve scored a power-play goal, including the clincher against Carolina. On the other side of things, their penalty kill (89.5 percent) has been the most effective in the league.

It’d be an edge over almost any other opponent — including the Panthers, who were a top-10 power-play team but have watched their production dip in the playoffs. They’ve scored eight times in 11 games, which is fine, but four of those came in Game 3 against Boston.

The good news for the Panthers: They’re getting looks, and actually beating the Rangers in expected goals/60 (11.5 to 10.3). That fact, combined with their track record of power-play success and a penalty kill that has limited opportunities better than 14 other playoff teams, will give them a shot at neutralizing one of New York’s major advantages.

The rosters

A series between the Rangers and Panthers brings a ton of star power. Florida knows what its best can do on the biggest stage. The question is whether New York’s leading players can bring it consistently.

That starts with Artemi Panarin. The Panarin line thrived in Games 1-3 of Round 2, with 74 percent of the expected goals share and a 4-3 edge in scoring. But Carolina exposed some of their defensive flaws in the second half of the series.

While Panarin has delivered timely scoring throughout the playoffs, against the Panthers there may not be as much room for error in the defensive zone. The bright side is that Panarin’s linemates have brought it all postseason long, to give that line more than one threat. Alexis Lafrenière’s Net Rating has increased the most of any player in this series since the playoffs kicked off, with a plus-2.1 goals improvement. Vincent Trocheck has been leaned on heavily in all situations and has stirred the pot through two rounds, which should match up well with Matthew Tkachuk’s rat-king antics.

New York needs more than one line to click, which puts pressure on the rest of the lineup. Chris Kreider rose to the occasion with a massive third period in Game 6 to get the Rangers here, but the bottom-six raises more questions.

Kaapo Kakko, Alex Wennberg and Will Cuylle can wear down opponents and control play, but they don’t contribute much scoring. Filip Chytil is a potential spark to change that if he’s available. With him in the fold, the Rangers are a deeper, more flexible team. Without him, there isn’t a trusty 12th forward for the coaches to lean on, which has led to top-sixers getting double-shifted.

The Rangers’ defense got dealt a much tougher workload in Round 2 against Carolina. And with more challenging competition came some adjustments. K’Andre Miller’s pair was shifted back into heavier matchups to lighten the load on the Adam Fox–Ryan Lindgren pairing.

Fox alone brings a plus-17 Rating, which counters the Panthers’ entire top pair. Add Lindgren’s minus-3 Net Rating, and they slip below Florida; his value has declined more than any other player in this series. By redistributing some of that burden, the Rangers avoid burying their best defenseman.

But what does that matchup pair look like in Round 3?

Miller was rolling with Braden Schneider in the playoffs until Game 6 against Carolina, when he was reunited with Jacob Trouba. Miller-Schneider was far from perfect, but Trouba’s numbers at least improved in a more sheltered role. Adding to his workload now could be risky.

The Rangers at least have a safety net in goalie Igor Shesterkin. He’s been excellent so far no matter the workload he’s faced, whether that means a low-event game, a ton of low-danger shots or more dynamic chances. Through 10 games, he’s given the Rangers eight quality starts.

The Panthers differ from the Rangers on the back end. They have fine goaltending in Sergei Bobrovsky, though this isn’t the Playoff Bob of last year. Florida makes up for that with a much stronger blue line.

That starts with Gustav Forsling, one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league. With Aaron Ekblad on the top pair, their Defensive Ratings have slipped a bit — but they’ve also faced a steady dose of elite talent, with matchups against the likes of Nikita Kucherov and David Pastrnak.

That pair plays heavy minutes so that Brandon Montour can stick to his offensive strengths. With Niko Mikkola, the second pair has a plus-8 Net Rating, which crushes the Rangers’ second pair which sits at a minus-5.

Montour and Forsling give the Panthers two defensemen with upward of a plus-10 Net Rating. Their forward group stacks another four on top of that, between Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. That’s four playoff performers at the top of the lineup.

In Reinhart and Barkov, the Panthers have a pair of elite two-way threats who are heavily leaned upon in all situations. Reinhart’s scoring pace in the postseason may not match his unbelievable regular-season heights, but he continues to put up a ton of shots and scoring chances on a nightly basis. And at five-on-five alongside Barkov, he has some of the best two-way impact on Florida’s expected goal suppression and creation, relative to his teammates.

Those two drive the top line, which allows Vladimir Tarasenko to more fittingly be the passenger who adds some scoring pop from the left wing.

The Verhaeghe-Tkachuk combination on the second line is as clutch as it gets. Verhaeghe is a huge threat off the rush and raises his game whenever the playoffs roll around; his Net Rating has jumped by 0.5 so far this postseason, thanks to his two-way play.

Tkachuk’s scoring may not match last postseason’s torrid pace, but he is still tied with Barkov as the most valuable forward in this series with a plus-22 Net Rating. He’s scoring at over a point-per-game pace, with 14 in 11 games, and has made a strong impact on the Panthers’ expected and actual goal generation at five-on-five. Florida has managed without Tkachuk being their MVP, but that game-breaking skill could always get unlocked this series — he showed just how much he thrives in these situations last year.

A healthy Sam Bennett is back to skating between Tkachuck and Verhaeghe. While Bennett made his mark on the Bruins series, the wingers actually were stronger with Lundell between them — that line outscored opponents 5-1 while earning a 63 percent expected goals rate.

Lundell emerged as a strong member of the supporting cast after having a relatively underwhelming regular season. Now he has to carry the success that he has had with Tkachuk and Verhaeghe to a third line that has struggled so far this postseason.

The key matchup

Mika Zibanejad vs. Aleksander Barkov

We were close to not getting this matchup at all. Barkov blocked a shot with his hand down the stretch in Florida’s clincher against Boston. “I’m fine, I’m good,” Barkov told Sportsnet after the game. Assuming that’s the truth, he’ll have the opportunity to build on what may have been the signature playoff series of his career thus far. Barkov had eight points against the Bruins, and the Panthers outscored Boston 5-4 with him on the ice at five-on-five, also controlling more than 62 percent of the expected goal share. It was a dominant showing on both sides of the puck, and exactly the sort of series that puts players in the Conn Smythe Trophy discussion.

Zibanejad, though, is significantly better than any of the centers Boston could throw at the Panthers. Like Barkov, he’s a do-everything, first-line stud, and he’s seen his point production tick upward in the playoffs. After a (relatively) down offensive season, he had points in each of New York’s first eight playoff games. New York’s top line of Zibanejad, Kreider and Jack Roslovic hasn’t quite controlled the run of play at five-on-five — they’re at about 45 percent expected goals — but they’ve outscored their issues. They may have to do the same against Barkov’s line. It’s a tall task, but not an impossible one.

The bottom line

A 65 percent chance is far from a lock — the Rangers already know that. They look destined for greatness.

Still, the Panthers may be their toughest challenge yet, a team that skillfully blends suffocating structure with game-breaking star power.

References

How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

(Photo: Jared Silber / NHLI via Getty Images)