2024 NFL Win Totals: Over/Under Predictions for All 32 Teams

Not many fans were happy with the NFC record predictions I made after the NFL revealed its 2024 schedule last week. That’s not surprising because it’s hard to get football fans to agree on anything and some of my predictions were a little out there. 

One of the comments under the cool Instagram graphic Sports Illustrated made of my NFC records said I was drunk when I wrote those predictions. Hundreds of others said it was the worst list ever assembled, which I get a lot for my rankings stories.

The comments often make me laugh, but I did want an opportunity to explain myself for why the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers won’t make the postseason and why the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals will win nine games. Like I said, these are bold predictions. 

So hopefully my explanations for these over/under predictions for win totals can add some context to my record predictions. And I’m sure many football fans will enjoy these over/under assessments. Can’t wait for the comments under the cool IG graphic in a day or two.   

(Note: All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings) 

Arizona Cardinals: 6.5
Prediction: Over 

The Cardinals are one of my surprise teams of 2024 because of what they’ve done to improve offensively, especially with the draft selection of Marvin Harrison Jr. With a healthy Kyler Murray, Harrison could deliver a dominant rookie season, perhaps comparable to what Puka Nacua did for the Los Angeles Rams last season (105 receptions, 1,486 yards, six touchdowns). But for Arizona to make a push for the postseason, coach Jonathan Gannon will need to produce productive game plans for his inexperienced defense to hang tough on Sundays. The Cardinals also added defensive talent with the first-round selection of edge rusher Darius Robinson. 

Atlanta Falcons: 9.5
Prediction: Over

I must admit, I surprised myself with giving the Falcons a 12–5 record prediction after the schedule was revealed last week. I was critical of them not adding a top defensive prospect after they used a first-round pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. But that shouldn’t diminish what they did in free agency, with the splash signing of Kirk Cousins. Most importantly, Raheem Morris and his coaching staff could do wonders with this impressive roster. And it helps that Atlanta has somewhat of a soft schedule during the second half of the season, with games against the Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers. 

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5
Prediction: Under

It’s going to be tough for the Ravens to produce more than 11 wins with a difficult schedule and an inexperienced offensive line with three new starters. Perhaps the arrival of Derrick Henry allows the offensive line to gain a rhythm early in the season, but that’s asking a lot of the veteran running back. There could also be an adjustment period for the talented defense without Mike Macdonald, the former defensive coordinator now with the Seahawks. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lamar Jackson & Co. back in the postseason, but it won’t be easy in the rugged AFC North. 

Buffalo Bills: 10.5
Prediction: Over

The departure of Stefon Diggs might make the Bills better in 2024. Josh Allen often forced throws to Diggs and it occasionally led to turnovers and got the offense out of rhythm. Buffalo turned its season around last year after offensive coordinator Joe Brady assembled a less-is-more system with Allen that featured more of running back James Cook. The defense, however, could have issues after the team parted with many key veterans in the offseason. Overall, there’s plenty of talent on the roster to take a chance on Buffalo winning more than 10 games with one of the best signal-callers in the NFL. 

Carolina Panthers: 4.5
Prediction: Under

The hiring of coach Dave Canales should help Bryce Young rebound from a dismal rookie season. There will be signs of improvement, but the Panthers might be a year away from turning those positive moments into victories. They finally added potential building blocks to grow with Young, including first-round rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette, who might be a friendly target with his sizable catch radius. But Carolina has concerns on the offensive line. It really needs left tackle Ikem Ekwonu to step up in his third season. The defense could struggle without Brian Burns, the star edge rusher who was traded to the New York Giants. 

Chicago Bears: 8.5
Prediction: Over

I’m not alone with my positive review of what the Chicago Bears have done this offseason. Many are expecting rookie Caleb Williams to hit the ground running with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. But there’s more to this team than Williams, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and rookie Rome Odunze. Coach Matt Eberflus might have a top-10 defense after the many strides the unit made last season. They allowed the fewest amount of rushing yards, and the pass rushing drastically improved after the trade for Montez Sweat. If the Bears get consistency from the offensive line, they could be a dangerous team in the stacked NFC North. 

Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5
Prediction: Over

A healthy Joe Burrow might be all this team needs to clear 10 wins this season. But Burrow staying healthy is no longer a safe bet because he has dealt with injuries the past three summers, leading to slow starts for Cincinnati. Also, the contract dilemmas of Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson could hinder team chemistry on the field. And it definitely doesn’t help that the Bengals have to deal with the teams in the AFC North. But with a healthy Burrow for an entire season, they might be the one team capable of dethroning the Chiefs.  

Cleveland Browns: 8.5
Prediction: Over 

There’s plenty to like about Cleveland’s balanced roster, but they have concerns with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who hasn’t come close to playing up to the high expectations after he signed a fully guaranteed contract of $230 million in 2022. But the Browns have a dominant defense that will keep them competitive throughout the season, despite how Watson performs. Perhaps the addition of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy helps Watson find consistency.

Dallas Cowboys: 10.5
Prediction: Under

The Cowboys are rarely short on drama and this year likely won’t be any different. There’s plenty of pressure on coach Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott to not only win the NFC East again but to finally make a deep postseason run. Prescott is in need of a new contract and it might say something that he and the organization haven’t reached a new deal this late in the offseason, but that surely could change in the summer. As for McCarthy, he might have to coach with only one year remaining on his contract and that could lead to needless drama. Along with pressure and contract drama, the Cowboys lost plenty of talent in free agency and didn’t do much to improve the roster.  

Denver Broncos: 5.5
Prediction: Under

Quarterback Bo Nix could have a rough rookie season playing with one of the weaker rosters in the NFL. The Broncos parted with key veterans and stood on the sidelines during free agency because of the cap space mess they created with the contract extension of Russell Wilson, who was cut in March after two disappointing seasons in Denver. Now it’s onto Nix—or maybe Jarrett Stidham—to help coach Sean Payton with getting the Broncos back on track. They have plenty of holes throughout the roster and might not have a cornerstone piece outside of cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

Detroit Lions: 10.5
Prediction: Over

The Lions might not have a weakness on their loaded roster. They addressed the secondary after trading for Carlton Davis III and drafting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. As for the quarterback position, that’s no longer a concern after Jared Goff guided the Lions to an NFC North title and a trip to the NFC championship game, earning a contract extension last week. Detroit could have a top-10 offense and defense in the NFL. As for an area of concern, the Lions are going to need Jameson Williams to step up and assist Amon-Ra St. Brown in the passing game. 

Green Bay Packers: 10.5
Prediction: Under

Some were surprised to see my 8–9 prediction for the Packers, who advanced to the NFC divisional round after Jordan Love’s breakout season. I’m not confident about that prediction because there’s plenty to like about Green Bay, but I do have a few concerns, starting with the offensive line. The interior of the line could be shaky unless the team finds a spot for rookie first-round pick Jordan Morgan at right guard. I’m also curious to see how coach Matt LaFleur utilizes running back Josh Jacobs. That might disrupt the rhythm of the passing attack and it was a bit strange that the team felt the need to add Jacobs after a dynamic season for the offense.

Houston Texans: 9.5
Prediction: Over 

The oddsmakers were wise to set this win total under 10, despite the hype for the new-look Texans this offseason. There’s too much uncertainty to expect Houston to be as good as the Ravens and Chiefs this season. Many would have bet the under had this been an 11.5 total win line. At 9.5, there’s plenty to think about because it’s tough to gauge how veteran newcomers Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter will fit in Houston. But it’s easy to bet on C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans after the memorable 2023 season for the Texans. They’ll find a way to win at least 10 games and maybe become true Super Bowl contenders.

Indianapolis Colts: 8.5
Prediction: Over

The Colts were a fourth-down conversion short of making the playoffs last year without rookie sensation Anthony Richardson, who missed the final 13 games of the season. Indianapolis should be better with Richardson on the field, but his availability is an issue after he sustained multiple injuries in the few games he played. Perhaps coach Shane Steichen leans more on running back Jonathan Taylor and calls fewer designed runs for his athletic quarterback to stay healthy throughout the season. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5
Prediction: Under

If Trevor Lawrence, who’s in need of a new contract, finally delivers an MVP-like season, this under bet could look silly in a few months. But the Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley and are now banking on Gabe Davis to be a reliable receiver—a risky move given that consistency was in issue for Davis in Buffalo. The offensive line and running game disappointed last season. And the defensive line needs to find ways to help stud edge rusher Josh Allen. Perhaps the addition of defensive tackle Arik Armstead is enough for the defense to improve. This is one of those bets in which I’m O.K. with letting the team prove me wrong because the Jaguars didn’t do much to address the issues that led to them missing the playoffs last season. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
Prediction: Under

The Chiefs are probably always going to compete for the postseason with Patrick Mahomes on the field and coach Andy Reid on the sideline. But it’s tough to ignore the chaotic offseason Kansas City has had with off-the-field issues. The receiving corps could be in trouble if Rashee Rice gets hit with a lengthy suspension from the league. But this is not to say the Chiefs will miss the playoffs. They’ll likely find a way to win enough games just like last year’s sluggish regular season. Perhaps a 10–7 record is all they need to win the AFC West again and compete for a third consecutive Super Bowl title.  

Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5
Prediction: Over

The Raiders are missing a true franchise quarterback, which is why they received a low win total. Expect them, however, to be competitive in games because they excel at rushing the passer and running the football. Yes, Josh Jacobs is now with the Packers, but Zamir White impressed during his starting opportunities last season. If the Raiders continue to excel in these two specific areas, they’ll just need Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell to run an efficient offense for this team to become a fringe wild-card contender.  

Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5
Prediction: Under

Jim Harbaugh will make the Chargers better, but this team is coming off a 5–12 season with a roster that might have gotten worse after the departures of wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If Harbaugh quickly gets the Chargers to improve the offensive line and rushing attack, perhaps they can make noise with Justin Herbert and a young receiving corps. Los Angeles will also need defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to quickly get the disappointing defense to play at a high level. It’s tough betting against Harbaugh because he’s known for getting fast results, but there’s too much uncertainty to expect this team to win more than eight games.

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5
Prediction: Over

The Rams surprised many in 2023 after winning 10 games with an inexperienced roster outside of Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. Now they’re going to have to play without Donald, the future Hall of Famer who retired in the offseason. But the Rams’ young defense gained cornerstone pieces last season with Kobie Turner and Byron Young, and the team added more defensive talent in free agency and through the draft this offseason. After Nacua’s breakout rookie season, the Rams’ offense should once again put up plenty of points to possibly push the 49ers in the NFC West.

Miami Dolphins: 9.5
Prediction: Under

It’s fair to wonder whether the league has figured out coach Mike McDaniel’s speedy offensive scheme after the Dolphins limped into the postseason and had a dreadful playoff loss against the Chiefs. The Dolphins have struggled against physical teams and often fail to make in-game adjustments when the downfield passes aren’t connecting early. Until the Dolphins improve in those two areas, it’s tough to take them seriously in the loaded AFC. They’re good enough to make the playoffs, but they lost many key players in free agency and star edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are coming off knee injuries.

Minnesota Vikings: 6.5
Prediction: Under

Vikings fans weren’t happy about my 3–14 prediction for them. Sure, that’s very low, but every year there are a few surprise teams that endure woeful seasons because of unforeseen reasons, whether it’s injuries or a slow start that’s too tough to overcome, creating a snowball effect. So I admit I’m reaching here a bit that Minnesota will be very bad. However, even if the Vikings are competitive with Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy, this team doesn’t appear to be a playoff contender. Darnold has struggled throughout his career and McCarthy was the fifth quarterback taken in the draft. The Vikings’ 2023 season nearly went sideways after a 1–4 start and needed a blazing Kirk Cousins to dig them out of that hole. He’s no longer around to help in case another slow start occurs.

New England Patriots: 4.5
Prediction: Under

The Patriots could have one of the worst offenses in the NFL behind rookie head coach Jerod Mayo. It’s fair to project this team going through growing pains in 2024, especially with a group of pass catchers lacking a top-tier target. Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye will be throwing to Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, K.J. Osborn and rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. But going under here is far from a safe bet because of the Patriots’ talented defense. They struggled last year because of the injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez but could be a top unit if they stay healthy.

New Orleans Saints: 7.5
Prediction: Over

The Saints haven’t made the playoffs since Drew Brees retired, but they have found a way to win at least seven games the past three seasons. They should remain competitive with another veteran-filled roster that also might have gained two impact rookies by selecting offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. Derek Carr could benefit from having a year of experience in New Orleans’s offense. He appeared to have developed chemistry with wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed during the final month of the season. 

New York Giants: 6.5
Prediction: Under

The Giants are banking on Daniel Jones having a bounce-back season after he endured six rocky games before sustaining a torn ACL in 2023. Jones should benefit from the arrival of rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, the No. 6 pick in the draft. But Nabers might not have much help with a group of skill players that’s struggled in recent years. The offensive line also hasn’t developed as hoped, but it could improve if Andrew Thomas stays healthy and newcomer veterans Jon Runyan Jr. and Aaron Stinnie improve the interior. The Giants’ strength will likely be on the defensive front with the arrival of Brian Burns, but the secondary could be an issue. 

New York Jets: 9.5
Prediction: Under

The Jets went all-in again with Aaron Rodgers, despite how poorly it went last season. New York is gambling by hoping Rodgers, who turns 41 in December, will stay healthy for the bulk of 2024. The Jets did improve the offensive line, but they will also need veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to stay upright or for rookie Olu Fashanu to make an immediate impact. With a tough schedule and injury concerns, it wouldn’t be wise to take the over here.  

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5
Prediction: Over

The Eagles retooled their secondary after the unit failed them during their end-of-season collapse. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean and the return of C.J. Gardner-Johnson should be enough for the unit to be much better this season. Philadelphia also made splash signings with running back Saquon Barkley and edge rusher Bryce Huff. But there could be some early struggles after the retirement of center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5
Prediction: Under

This might finally be the year that Mike Tomlin doesn’t end a season with a winning record, something he’s accomplished the past 17 seasons. The Steelers are hoping Russell Wilson reignites his career, though they do have Justin Fields as insurance. It won’t be easy for either to succeed with a thin group of pass catchers outside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. The defense should once again be productive, but Pittsburgh tends to struggle if T.J. Watt isn’t on the field. Watt missed the 31–17 wild-card loss to the Bills. 

San Francisco 49ers: 11.5
Prediction: Over

The 49ers have won at least 12 games the past two seasons, which they could achieve again with one of the best rosters in the NFL. Talent has rarely been an issue for the 49ers the past five years, but they will have the mental challenge of trying to climb the mountain again after losing a second Super Bowl to the Chiefs. If coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers get off to another dominant start, perhaps this will finally be the year the Super Bowl drought ends in San Francisco.

Seattle Seahawks: 7.5
Prediction: Under

The Seahawks head into a transition season after hiring Mike Macdonald and parting with Pete Carroll after 14 seasons. Macdonald will need to get the talented defense to play at a high level, something Carroll failed to do in his final years in Seattle. Macdonald’s coaching staff will also need Geno Smith to return to his 2022 form after a downturn during his second year as starter, though that was partially because of an inconsistent offensive line and rushing attack.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5
Prediction: Over

The Buccaneers kept their core group intact after a surprising run to the divisional round during Baker Mayfield’s first season in Tampa Bay. The team re-signed Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. to long-term contact extensions this offseason. Mayfield, however, will need to prove his breakout wasn’t a fluke and that his success wasn’t mostly because of Dave Canales, the former play-caller now coaching the Panthers. The defense should be stout again under the guidance of coach Todd Bowles. This a tough, well-balanced roster that should make noise again in the NFC South. 

Tennessee Titans: 6.5
Prediction: Under 

The Titans had a productive offseason adding talent to both sides of the football, but they might be a year away from sniffing the playoffs with rookie coach Brian Callahan. Will Levis will need to establish quick chemistry with a new top target (Ridley), center (Lloyd Cushenberry III) and running back (Tony Pollard). It takes time for players to get acclimated to new coaching staffs, but I’m not too confident about underestimating the Titans after an impressive spring. 

Washington Commanders: 6.5
Prediction: Over

The Commanders are another one of my surprise teams of 2024. They haven’t gotten enough credit for the savvy moves new GM Adam Peters made during free agency. He added several free agents who should help fill many holes this roster had last year. The additions of Dorance Armstrong, Clelin Ferrell, Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn could help coach Dan Quinn turn the defense into a formidable unit. And the offense could excel if rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels quickly finds a rhythm in the NFL. This line seems too low for a team that appears to be on the rise with new decision makers. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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