2024 MLB mock draft 3.1: A new No. 1 pick hours before first round begins

The 2024 MLB draft begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and that means it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 plans.

The intrigue starts right at the top this year, as the Cleveland Guardians have a difficult decision to make with the first overall pick in a draft featuring a strong group of college players in contention to come off the board first. What will the Guardians do — and how will the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?

Since this is a last-minute look at what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my Mock Draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the picks will come off the board, while my rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.

Watch: MLB draft, 7 p.m. ET | Draft Tracker: Analysis for every first-round pick

Mock draft 3.0 | Ranking the top 250 prospects

1. Cleveland Guardians

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

“This is the fun part: where a few hundred baseball people play liar’s poker for three days.”

That came from an agent a few days ago, and it’s still the prevailing sentiment around the game. Agents for this year’s prospects know the ranges that their players are in play but won’t know which interest is real until picks are coming off the board — so we all move forward with incomplete, but hopefully mostly complete information.

The perception around the industry is Wetherholt is the cut-rate option here (likely with a bonus price between the No. 4 and No. 5 slots) but the chatter that he’s the pick here sounds like posturing to get Bazzana’s asking price down while his camp will be as reasonable as needed to get a deal done here.

Again, expect that to happen 15-20 minutes before the Guardians are on the clock. And this isn’t a matter of not sourcing well enough: The teams don’t know for sure who they are picking yet at almost every pick that will happen Sunday night. Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone and Chase Burns are all under consideration but are all seen as long shots to varying degrees.

2. Cincinnati Reds

Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia

Again, the perception here is that Condon and Burns go second and third in some order, with Caglianone as the possible wild card also being considered at both picks.

3. Colorado Rockies

Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

Burns pairs well with 2023 first-round pick Chase Dollander in Colorado’s system and taking him also follows the thought process that Colorado drafted college pitcher Gabriel Hughes in the 2022 first round. Caglianone and Condon are the other possibilities for the Rockies, with any other player being seen as a pretty big long shot to go here.

JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia

The (convenient) prevailing belief that I’m finding is that Bazzana and Wetherholt go first and fourth in some order while Condon and Burns go second and third in some order, with Caglianone the wild card at all four picks. Braden Montgomery is believed to be the other option here, if bonus prices don’t line up as expected, which could happen if a player is trying to float down the board to a bigger payday. Nick Kurtz is under consideration, too, but is seen as unlikely.

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Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida

I think Cags is under consideration at every pick before this to varying degrees and won’t get past either here or Kansas City with the next pick. Hagen Smith and Konnor Griffin (likely under slot) are seen as the other likely options for the White Sox and Wetherholt would also be in the mix if he’s still on the board.

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Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (California) HS

Caglianone and Hagen Smith are both in the final mix along with Rainer for this pick. I feel good that I have a good sense of the mixes at each of these picks, but one wrong projection at the top would mean these picks all shuffle accordingly — and I post an 0-fer in the mock.

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Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

I think Smith will go somewhere between No. 5 and No. 7, and it seems unlikely he’ll get out of this range. Wetherholt, Rainer, and Caglianone would be under consideration if any of them are still available here. In this scenario, Montgomery, Kurtz and James Tibbs III would be the other players under consideration.

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Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M

This is where something wacky becomes a distinct possibility to wreck the mock. Ryan Waldschmidt or Christian Moore on a deal here are the hot rumors. Bryce Rainer is the high school pick that the Angels would seriously consider.

I think the Angels really want a shot at Wetherholt, but I don’t think they’ll get it. The next tier of college bats would then likely begin here, with Montgomery, Kurtz and Tibbs as the leading options.

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Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Mississippi) HS

Griffin’s possible landing sports are No. 5, here and then basically every pick after this, depending on the scenario. I think this decision will come down to Griffin vs. the college bats on the board, which would be Kurtz, Tibbs and Waldschmidt on a deal. Cam Caminiti is likely on the outside looking in.

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James Tibbs III, RF, Florida State

I think Wetherholt is the target here and with the increase in bonus pool money from their recently acquired compensation round pick (No. 39 overall), Washington could make a compelling case, but it’s just hard to float college players down the draft board in almost any scenario.

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Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

Kurtz is too talented to keep falling and wouldn’t last much longer if Detroit passes. He’s in play at No. 4 and the back of the top 10. There’s a perception that Detroit is looking at risk/reward prep types but I think they’ll end up taking a college player here, whichever of the top options gets out of the top 10. Cam Smith, Caleb Lomavita, Caminiti and Kash Mayfield have been mentioned most of late. I don’t know if Detroit is on Griffin but I could see him being the pick if he doesn’t go fifth or ninth.

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Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee

I think if things play out something like this ahead of Boston’s pick, Moore will be the choice here. High school infielder Theo Gillen on a deal has been a rumor at this pick. There have also been a lot of pitching options mentioned here: Trey Yesavage, Jurrangle Cijntje, and Mayfield.

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Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Arizona) HS

Caminiti feels likely to go here, No. 15 to Seattle, or No. 18 to Tampa Bay. I think Kurtz, Tibbs or Griffin could stop here if any of them slide. Cam Smith and Vance Honeycutt are also leading options in this scenario.

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Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State

Smith likely goes by No. 16 and is under consideration from the back of the top 10 on. Yesavage, Christian Moore and Malcolm Moore are other leading options depending how the board plays out.

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Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

Caminiti would be a leading option if he gets here, and Cijntje is in this mix along with Yesavage. Mayfield, Seaver King, and Theo Gillen are also mentioned here often.

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Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest

I think Miami is looking at a group of college bats and hoping that one of them gets here: Christian Moore, Cam Smith, King are believed to be the options with a good shot of lasting this long. If all three are gone, I think this is another spot where some well-under slot activities may begin with the second tier of talent ending and the wide-open third tier beginning. Gillen, Carter Johnson, and P.J. Morlando would be those leading options.

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Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal

Carson Benge, Malcolm Moore, Cijntje and Griff O’Ferrall are other leading options here.

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Theo Gillen, 2B, Westlake (Texas) HS

Slade Caldwell and Cijntje are in the mix here as well with Kellon Lindsey the leading underslot option here. Gillen is liked by almost every team in this range.

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Vance Honeycutt, CF, North Carolina

This is perceived to be Honeycutt’s second real potential landing spot. Slade Caldwell, Tyson Lewis and Dakota Jordan are also in the mix.

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Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

Gillen, King, Cijntje are all in the mix here, too.

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Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State

I think Cijntje stops here after having consistent interest at every pick from No. 15 on.Caldwell is also a leading option here. Lomavita and Malcolm Moore would be if they are still on the board. O’Ferrall, Braylon Doughty and Billy Amick fit more at the Twins’ next pick.

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Carson Benge, RF, Oklahoma State

Benge is in play from No. 17 on and would continue to draw interest in the next few picks if he doesn’t go here. Kaelen Culpepper’s range likely starts here and Lindsey is also in play.

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Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Oklahoma) HS

Mayfield has a lot of interest from No.11 to No. 15 and could well be a surprise pick in that range. If not, he has lots of interest from picks 20-25. Lindsey and Caldwell would be leading options if Mayfield doesn’t make it here.

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Slade Caldwell, CF, Valley View (Arkansas) HS

Interest in the most heavily rising name in the draft, Dax Whitney, starts his range here. Caldwell, Lindsey, Brody Brecht and Doughty are of interest. Caldwell’s range goes from 18 through the 30’s with pretty consistent interest.

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Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee (Florida) HS

Lots of prep players are tied here, like Whitney, Bateman, and Morlando.

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Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot (Idaho) HS

Talk is circulating that the Yankees won’t like the options that get to their pick and will opt for a somewhat unexpected prep pick here. Doughty, Boston Bateman, and James Nunnallee also get mentioned for this pick.

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Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

This is probably as far as Brecht falls, and he fits Philly’s tendencies of taking high-upside prospects well. Caleb Bonemer, Morlando, Jordan and Honeycutt could all fit, too.

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Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West (Nebraska) HS

Honeycutt, Jordan, O’Ferrall, and Kyle DeBarge are all mentioned here

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Ryan Waldschmidt, LF, Kentucky

Waldschmidt may have the widest range of any player in the first round. The likelihood is that he will go somewhere in the 20s, but he has a ton of potential landing spots throughout the round. Arizona has been tied to easily a dozen different players here as they will be with their upcoming picks (No. 31 and No. 35).

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Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence (Texas) HS

Malcolm Moore would stop here if he is still available. Carter Johnson, Braylon Payne and William Schmidt are also mentioned as options.